The College Conundrum

Bruce Mehlman’s latest Six-Chart Sunday report, "The College Conundrum," raises important questions for students and parents navigating the current college admissions landscape.

His analysis, through compelling data, confirms what many families are already feeling: the system is shifting, and navigating it requires more clarity, strategy, and foresight than ever before.

Here is a breakdown of his argument:

College Enrollment Is Falling, But Costs Aren’t
Even as a college degree remains a key differentiator in the job market, overall college enrollment is declining. Why? Soaring tuition, concerns about student debt, and skepticism about the return on investment have made some families pause. Yet the economic premium for a college graduate remains real. In short: the value of college isn’t vanishing, but the way students are evaluating that value is changing.

Elite Schools Are More Competitive Than Ever

Mehlman’s charts (see below) show that while America’s population has grown, the number of seats at top-ranked universities has remained largely flat. That means acceptance rates are falling, not necessarily because students are less qualified, but because more students are applying for the same limited spots. This makes smart college list-building and a standout application strategy more critical than ever.

International Students and the U.S. Economy

One of the lesser-known takeaways from Mehlman’s report is the economic impact of international students, whose spending outpaces U.S. exports like natural gas and agricultural products. These students don’t just bring global diversity to campuses, they also help fund U.S. universities and local economies. Maintaining international enrollment is increasingly viewed as an economic priority.

Reimagining Higher Ed: Is College the Only Path?

Another trend on the rise: alternative pathways. From coding bootcamps to community colleges to online programs, many students are reconsidering the traditional four-year route. That doesn’t mean college is obsolete—but it does mean families are wise to weigh all options. A successful future starts with intentional, informed planning—whether that leads to a liberal arts college, a flagship public university, or an emerging hybrid program.

How We Can Help

We’re closely tracking these trends to help students make the best choices in a rapidly evolving system...I mean it is our job to do so.

We can help you build a balanced college list, decide which decision deadline to take advantage of, showcase your unique story in a competitive pool, and so much more!

To your college planning success,
Melina Kazanas

P.S. - Have a high-performing high schooler w/ a 3.7 GPA or higher? We'll help get them into at least one of their top 5 dream colleges...and if we don't get them into at least one of their top 5 dream colleges, you don't pay us a penny.  Seriously.  College admissions isn't rocket science...but it is a science.  And we've cracked the code...year, after year, after year.  You can learn more about our world renowned all-inclusive, start-to-finish college coaching here and to see if your family qualifies for an introductory call.

P.P.S - Our most common question is "When should we start?!"  The answer is, if you truly care about giving your high schooler the best chance of college planning success, you should start NOW. 9th grade is not too early to start! 10th grade is certainly not too early to start! And 11th grade is far, far too late! (supporting data here to show just how much of an advantage you give your child by starting the process early).